This makes the margin between Trump and the rest of the field north of 30 points on average.Ī look back at past polls does show candidates coming back from deficits greater than 10 points to win the nomination, but none greater than 30 points at this point. Ron DeSantis, has fallen below 20% nationally. Today, Trump’s closest primary competitor, Florida Gov. Why Trump's second indictment may not sink him in 2024 Gore remains the only nonincumbent to win every single presidential nominating contest, while Bush and Clinton never lost their national polling advantage in their primaries.įormer President Donald Trump waves to attendees after speaking at the Georgia GOP convention in Columbus on June 10, 2023.

Bush in 2000 and Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Three prior candidates in open primaries were pulling in more than half the vote in primary surveys in the second half of the calendar year before the election: Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined. No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent. Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle. Political wisdom may have once suggested the former president’s bid for a second White House term would be nothing but a pipe dream.

Donald Trump is facing two indictments, with the potential for more.

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